Brazil · Runoff · 25 October 2026

Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro. What each program says. What each government did.

Twelve themes. For each: the numbers from 2019-2022 and 2023-2026, quotes from both official 2026 programs with page numbers, and every source linked. Points against both sides are in.

How to use it: pick a theme, send the card or the Portuguese message to a Brazilian friend, and ask how they see it. The vote is theirs.

01Climate and the Amazon13,038 → 5,731 km²Amazon deforestation, 2021 peak vs 2025 (INPE / PRODES)02Science and research fundingR$2.5bn blocked in June 2022More than half the grant money then available in the FNDCT science fund (Folha)03Human rights6,602 killed by police in 2025The highest number in the series since 2016 (FBSP Anuário 2026)04Women1,571 femicides in 2025A record, up from 1,330 in 2019 (FBSP Anuário 2026)05LGBTQ+ rights257 violent deaths in 2025LGBT+ people, down 11.7% from 291 in 2024 (Grupo Gay da Bahia, NGO count)06Racism79.7% Share of violent-death victims who were Black, 2025 (FBSP)07Labor rights472 votesChamber votes to end the 6x1 week (six days on, one off), 27 May 2026 08Energy transition11.9% → 13.4% Non-renewable share of Brazil's electricity, 2024 vs 2025 (EPE)09Sovereignty and multipolarity25% US tariff, July 2026Section 301 tariff on certain Brazilian goods, announced 15 Jul 2026 (USTR)10DemocracyOpposite fixes Flávio: limit the STF, end re-election. Lula: more participation, debate budget amendments, regulate platforms.11Economy5.3% unemployment, Jun-Aug 2026IBGE. It was 7.9% in Dec 2022 and 14.2% in 2020, so the fall is split between governments 12Public security40,775 violent deaths in 2025Rate of 19.1 per 100,000, the lowest since 2012 (FBSP Anuário 2026)

About and method

About this site

Who made this

My name is Mat Guzzo. I made this site on my own. It is not an organisation, not a campaign and not a news outlet. I have views in this election, and I am telling you that up front. The site is built to stand on its sources, so check them and ignore me if they do not hold up.

Nobody paid for this. Nothing on it is boosted, sponsored or paid to anyone. It has no ads and collects nothing. It has not been reviewed by an election lawyer, so read it as one person's work.

The idea is simple. Foreigners can amplify. Brazilians decide. If you know a Brazilian, send them a page, ask what they think, and remind them the runoff is on Sunday 25 October 2026.

The two programs

Lula (PT). "Diretrizes para o Programa de Transformação do Brasil: um país soberano, democrático, desenvolvido, sustentável e criativo". 84 pages, registered with the TSE in August 2026. Official copy: tse.jus.br.
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). "Diretrizes do Plano de Governo Flávio Bolsonaro 2027-2030, versão final" ("Para o Brasil vencer o atraso"). 76 pages. Official copy: tse.jus.br.

Page numbers on the theme pages are the page numbers of those two PDFs. Every program quote was checked against the TSE copies on 10 October 2026.

Method

A program is a promise. A record is what happened. They sit in separate sections on every page.
For what a program does not say, we searched the full text of the PDF by keyword. "Does not mention" means those words do not appear in that text. It does not describe anyone's views beyond the text.
"Not found" means we looked for a matching figure and did not find one. In those cases no comparison is implied.
When a number comes from a government itself, a campaign program or one NGO, the page says so.
Bolsonaro's four years are 2019-2022; Lula's third term is 2023 onward, so averages for it use 2023-2025. Some 2026 figures are partial and can change. Deflated values are our own calculation from official series.
Points that cut against both sides are on the pages. Neither record is clean.

Why Jair Bolsonaro's 2019-2022 record is used

Flávio Bolsonaro's own program presents the Bolsonaro government as its record. For example, on p. 58 it promises to resume and see through "o compromisso que já assumimos no Governo Bolsonaro perante o mundo", and on p. 34 it says "No governo Bolsonaro, voltamos a colocar a família no centro das políticas públicas". It makes similar claims on pp. 29, 32 and elsewhere. So the pages compare the 2019-2022 record with the 2023-2026 record.

Last updated

Labor rights (6x1): status as of 10 October 2026. The Senate vote is scheduled for 14 or 15 October, and the page will be stale after that.
Sovereignty and the US tariffs: as of 10 October 2026.
All other pages: compiled 9 to 10 October 2026.

Translations

Program quotes are in the original Portuguese. English renderings are unofficial, and the Portuguese messages are for you to adapt in your own words.

Corrections

If you find a mistake, tell Mat Guzzo and it will be fixed and noted here.

Theme 1 of 12

Climate and the Amazon

13,038 → 5,731 km²

Amazon deforestation, 2021 peak vs 2025 (INPE / PRODES)

Amazon deforestation peaked at 13,038 km² in 2021 (INPE/PRODES) and fell to 5,731 km² in 2025. Lula's program sets a target of net-zero deforestation by 2030. Flávio's sets a target of zero illegal deforestation by 2029. Their plans differ on who enforces the rules and what gets cut.

What the record shows

Bolsonaro government 2019-2022 versus Lula government 2023-2026.

INPE PRODES, Legal Amazon, km², consolidated

	Bolsonaro 2019-22	Lula 2023-26
Year 1	2019: 10,129	2023: 9,064
Year 2	2020: 10,851	2024: 6,518
Year 3	2021: 13,038	2025: 5,731
Year 4	2022: 11,594	2026: not published yet
Average	11,403	7,104 (3 years)

Cross-check: INPE DETER alerts for Aug 2025 to Jul 2026 were 2,874 km², down 36.9% on the previous cycle, the lowest since the DETER series began in 2016 (Agência Brasil). DETER and PRODES measure different things; do not mix them.

Points that cut against Lula's record (include them): deforestation in Mato Grosso rose 26.7% in 2025 while the other eight Amazon states fell (INPE). Ibama licensed Petrobras to drill in Foz do Amazonas on 20 Oct 2025 and authorised three more wells in Sep 2026. A PRODES year runs Aug to Jul, so PRODES 2023 includes five months under Bolsonaro.

What each program says

Official government programs registered with the TSE for 2026. Quotes in the original Portuguese; page numbers are the programs' printed pages.

Lula (PT)

p. 70: "continuaremos trabalhando para alcançar o desmatamento líquido zero até 2030". EN: we will keep working toward net-zero deforestation by 2030. P. 69: new NDC target of a 59% to 67% cut in net emissions by 2035 versus 2005. P. 70: land to be allocated to "unidades de conservação, territórios indígenas e quilombolas ou assentamentos" (the text reads "quilombolas ou assentamentos", with "ou", not "e").

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

p. 58: "Teremos a meta de zerar o desmatamento ilegal até 2029, retomando e levando até o fim o compromisso que já assumimos no Governo Bolsonaro perante o mundo". EN: target of zero illegal deforestation by 2029, "resuming and seeing through the commitment we already made in the Bolsonaro government". P. 58: fiscalização with satellites and AI, "sem criar novas obrigações ou custos desnecessários para o produtor rural que atua dentro da lei". P. 59: "O morador da Amazônia, o ribeirinho, o pequeno produtor, o extrativista, não será tratado como criminoso". P. 59: "eliminar superposições entre Ibama, Funai e ICMBio" and "exigir transparência de financiadores e de projetos das ONGs que recebem recursos internacionais e judicializam ações contra a União". P. 57: consolidate the regulated carbon market and bioeconomy.

Sources

INPE 2025 rate gov.br
INPE note data.inpe.br
MMA/INPE 2019-2023 gov.br
DETER agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br
Foz do Amazonas poder360.com.br

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Theme 10 of 12

Democracy

Opposite fixes

Flávio: limit the STF, end re-election. Lula: more participation, debate budget amendments, regulate platforms.

Both programs promise to defend democratic rules, with opposite fixes. Flávio's program would limit the Supreme Court's powers, end presidential re-election and abolish what it calls a "Ministry of Truth". Lula's would deepen social participation, debate parliamentary budget amendments, and regulate social networks and platforms. The Supreme Court's 2025 conviction of Jair Bolsonaro is in the record table.

What the record shows

Bolsonaro government 2019-2022 versus Lula government 2023-2026.

	Fact	Source
11 Sep 2025	The Supreme Court's First Panel convicted Jair Bolsonaro and seven others of attempting a coup, 4 votes to 1. He was sentenced to 27 years and 3 months in closed regime.	Agência Brasil, G1

This is a court ruling. Not found: any data series on the Jan 2023 attacks or on press freedom.

What each program says

Official government programs registered with the TSE for 2026. Quotes in the original Portuguese; page numbers are the programs' printed pages.

Lula (PT)

pp. 15-16: deepen "participação" and "controle social", with more national conferences (the program says 28 since 2023). On parliamentary amendments the program says Brazil must "enfrentar uma grave distorção [...] o atual sistema de emendas parlamentares", and that "o tema das emendas parlamentares seja debatido com a sociedade" (EN: confront a "serious distortion" in the amendment system, and the topic must be debated with society). Also: "avançar ainda mais na regulação democrática das redes sociais e das plataformas digitais, de modo a impedir que elas difundam desinformação, acolham campanhas de ódio" and "Nenhuma democracia sobrevive sem uma opinião pública plural e sem a garantia plena da liberdade de expressão".

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

p. 65: end the STF's original criminal jurisdiction, limit single-judge decisions ("decisões monocráticas"), one-year quarantine for ministers before the court. P. 66: "propomos o fim da reeleição para o cargo de Presidente da República" (a PEC he filed in the Senate). P. 66: the program says an apparatus has grown that it calls a "Ministério da Verdade" (EN: Ministry of Truth) and proposes a "Tesouraço da Censura" (a big scissors-cut): "acabar com qualquer estrutura estatal que funcione como um 'Ministério da Verdade'" and revoke acts the government made "para silenciar seus críticos". The program says nothing on amnesty, and neither does Lula's (the word "anistia" appears in neither).

Sources

Agência Brasil agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br
G1 g1.globo.com

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Theme 11 of 12

Economy

5.3% unemployment, Jun-Aug 2026

IBGE. It was 7.9% in Dec 2022 and 14.2% in 2020, so the fall is split between governments

Unemployment was 5.3% in Jun-Aug 2026 (IBGE). It was 14.2% in 2020 and 7.9% in Dec 2022, so the fall is split between the two governments. Lula's program defends the new fiscal framework and income-tax exemptions. Flávio's promises primary surpluses, a spending-control rule and lower taxes.

What the record shows

Bolsonaro government 2019-2022 versus Lula government 2023-2026.

	Bolsonaro 2019-22	Lula 2023-26
Unemployment, Dec rolling quarter, % (IBGE)	11.1 / 14.2 / 11.1 / 7.9	7.4 / 6.2 / 5.1 / 5.3 (Jun-Aug 2026)
Inflation, IPCA Dec to Dec, % (BCB)	4.31 / 4.52 / 10.06 / 5.79	4.62 / 4.83 / 4.26 / 4.22 (12 months to Aug 2026)
Gini of household income per capita (IBGE; 0 equal, 1 unequal)	0.543 / 0.523 / 0.543 / 0.517	0.517 / 0.504 / 0.511 / n/a
Gross public debt, % of GDP (BCB)	74.4 / 86.9 / 77.3 / 71.7	73.8 / 76.3 / 78.6 / 82.9 (Aug 2026)
Primary result, % of GDP (BCB; negative is a deficit)	-0.84 / -9.24 / +0.72 / +1.25	-2.28 / -0.40 / -0.43 / -0.62 (12 months to Aug 2026)
Poverty, % below US$6.85 a day (IBGE)	32.6 / 31.1 / 36.8 / 31.6	27.3 (2023) / 23.1 (2024) / not yet published
Cash transfer families	Dec 2022: 21.6 million (Auxílio Brasil, R$600)	Dec 2025: 18.7 million (Bolsa Família)

Points against the Lula government: the Gini index rose in 2025, from 0.504 to 0.511, after falling or staying flat for three years (IBGE; top incomes grew faster than bottom incomes, per Valor). Gross debt rose from 71.7% of GDP in Dec 2022 to 82.9% in Aug 2026, and the Selic reached 15% at the end of 2025. The primary balance moved from a 1.25% surplus in 2022 to a 2.28% deficit in 2023.

Points in favour of the Bolsonaro government's record, and against it: unemployment fell from 11.1% to 7.9% in 2022 and gross debt fell from 86.9% of GDP (2020) to 71.7% (2022). Against it: inflation reached 10.06% in 2021; real usual income fell 5.8% from 2018 to 2022 (IBGE); the 2020 deficit of 9.24% is pandemic spending, which no government chose. Auxílio Brasil at R$600 reached 21.6 million families in Dec 2022, an election-year increase funded by an extra R$27 billion credit; the TCU audit reported in R7 found it less effective than Bolsa Família.

Poverty values for 2025 and 2026 were not found. The 2023 swing in the primary result followed Constitutional Amendment 126 (Dec 2022) and a new fiscal framework (Complementary Law 200, Aug 2023); we have not separated how much came from each cause.

What each program says

Official government programs registered with the TSE for 2026. Quotes in the original Portuguese; page numbers are the programs' printed pages.

Lula (PT)

pp. 10-11: the government adopted "o novo arcabouço fiscal, que controlou o crescimento das despesas sem prejudicar a recomposição de gastos sociais", and "reduzimos o peso dos impostos sobre os mais pobres, com medidas de isenção total ou parcial do Imposto de Renda". The program also says it taxed the "super ricos" and closed loopholes such as offshore and exclusive funds. These are the program's own claims.

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

p. 71: "Vamos construir o equilíbrio fiscal duradouro, entregando superávits primários e limitando o crédito subsidiado com recursos do Tesouro" and "uma regra clara de controle de gastos discricionários dos três Poderes da União". P. 71: "faremos nossos gastos caberem no orçamento, o que permitirá cobrar menos impostos". P. 33: "inflação volte ao centro da meta". Pp. 29, 32: the program claims the Bolsonaro government cut the debt-to-GDP ratio by 4 percentage points and had the lowest average interest rate since the Plano Real (its own claims).

Sources

IBGE SIDRA unemployment apisidra.ibge.gov.br
IBGE SIDRA Gini apisidra.ibge.gov.br
IBGE 2025 income release agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br
Valor on inequality valor.globo.com
BCB inflation api.bcb.gov.br
BCB primary result api.bcb.gov.br
BCB gross debt api.bcb.gov.br
Agência Senado on Auxílio Brasil www12.senado.leg.br
R7 on the TCU audit noticias.r7.com
Poder360 on Bolsa Família poder360.com.br

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Theme 8 of 12

Energy transition

11.9% → 13.4%

Non-renewable share of Brazil's electricity, 2024 vs 2025 (EPE)

Brazil's power is mostly renewable, but the share from non-renewable sources rose in 2025, from 11.9% to 13.4% of electricity generation (EPE). Both programs want cheaper energy and both keep oil and gas. Lula's program leans into renewables, biofuels and hydrogen, and also celebrates having resumed investment in oil and gas. Flávio's leans into gas, including fracking, and wants to cut "fontes incentivadas" (subsidised, mostly wind and solar, sources), with batteries alongside.

What the record shows

Bolsonaro government 2019-2022 versus Lula government 2023-2026.

EPE Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: non-renewable sources were 13.4% of 2025 electricity generation, up from 11.9% in 2024. Hydro was 52.2% of internal electricity supply, and renewables 86.6% of it. 16.3 GW of solar was installed in 2025, taking solar to 24.8% of installed capacity.
Under Lula, oil and gas expanded too: Ibama licensed Petrobras to drill an exploratory well at Foz do Amazonas on 20 Oct 2025 and authorised three more wells in Sep 2026. Lula's program itself says the government "retomou os investimentos em petróleo e gás" (pp. 63, 66), that Petrobras investment grew 79% in 2023-25 against 2019-21, and that Brazil reached a production record of 4.897 million barrels of oil equivalent a day at the end of 2025. It also says Petrobras "continuará ampliando investimentos em exploração onshore e offshore" (p. 67).
Lula's program says 31,289 MW were added in the term, 80% renewable, and that renewables are 89% of the electricity matrix versus 31% in the OECD (p. 64). These are the program's claims and I did not match them to EPE; use them only as "the program says".
Not retrieved: a clean 2019-2022 comparison of capacity additions.

What each program says

Official government programs registered with the TSE for 2026. Quotes in the original Portuguese; page numbers are the programs' printed pages.

Lula (PT)

p. 64: "acelerar a substituição progressiva de combustíveis fósseis por biocombustíveis e combustíveis de baixa intensidade de carbono, incluindo derivados de hidrogênio". P. 65: continue transmission auctions and "uma nova fronteira de investimentos em baterias"; "acelerar a redução da produção de carvão". P. 63: the government "retomou os investimentos em petróleo e gás". P. 71: take part in the debate on a global "mapa do caminho global para longe dos combustíveis fósseis, preservando soberania e segurança energéticas".

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

p. 52: the national energy-security programme should "permitir a exploração do gás não convencional (fracking) com responsabilidade ambiental e cumprindo a lei". Pp. 31 and 53: "promover a redução gradual da CDE e das fontes incentivadas, mantida a tarifa social" (EN: gradually reduce the CDE electricity levy and the subsidised, mostly wind and solar, sources, keeping the social tariff), plus "um programa de armazenamento de energia, com baterias de grande porte". P. 53 also: biofuels ("potência de biocombustíveis"). P. 56: "Vamos ajudar o mundo a fazer a transição energética" (critical minerals).

Sources

EPE BEN 2026 dashboard.epe.gov.br
EPE Anuário dashboard.epe.gov.br
Foz do Amazonas poder360.com.br

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Theme 3 of 12

Human rights

6,602 killed by police in 2025

The highest number in the series since 2016 (FBSP Anuário 2026)

Police killed 6,602 people in Brazil in 2025, the highest number in the series since 2016 (FBSP). Lula's program names human rights, civil liberties and specific groups. Flávio's program puts its rights language into public security and the family, and never uses the phrase "direitos humanos". Human Rights Watch called Lula's first-year record mixed.

What the record shows

Bolsonaro government 2019-2022 versus Lula government 2023-2026.

Deaths caused by police on and off duty, FBSP Anuário 2026 (Gráfico 13, p. 74): 2016: 4,240. 2017: 5,179. 2018: 6,175. 2019: 6,351. 2020: 6,413. 2021: 6,493. 2022: 6,455. 2023: 6,413. 2024: 6,237. 2025: 6,602. 2025 is the highest in the series, 5.4% above 2024, and 16.2% of all violent intentional deaths. FBSP revises its series; earlier releases gave different values for some years, so use one release only.
Human Rights Watch, Jan 2024: in Lula's first year the record was mixed, and HRW said he failed to tackle chronic police abuse (HRW's assessment, not a statistic).
Human Rights Watch, Apr 2023: its requests to the Bolsonaro administration on racial equality in policing "fell on deaf ears" (HRW's words). That is HRW's assessment, not a statistic.
Yanomami territory, deaths from all causes: 343 in 2022 and 363 in 2023 (+5.8%; preliminary data from information-access requests, Poder360, Feb 2024). The Ministry of Health says earlier years were under-reported. A later Ministry series gives 428 in 2023 and 337 in 2024 (-21%, g1). The Ministry of Indigenous Peoples reports illegal mining area down 91% (the government's own figure; no independent series found). The numbers have been revised, so they are not a clean before-and-after. A figure of 570 under-5 child deaths over four years (Sumaúma) covers a different group and is not comparable with these.
A regional count of 4,330 deaths in police actions in nine states in 2025, with 86.3% of victims Black, comes from the Rede de Observatórios da Segurança (CESeC), not from FBSP.

What each program says

Official government programs registered with the TSE for 2026. Quotes in the original Portuguese; page numbers are the programs' printed pages.

Lula (PT)

p. 26: the State must "assegure os direitos das mulheres, da população negra, dos povos indígenas e quilombolas, da população LGBTQIAP+, das pessoas com deficiência, dos povos do campo, das águas e das florestas, com amplo respeito às liberdades e aos direitos humanos". P. 61: protect "defensores dos direitos humanos e ambientais" against rural violence. P. 79: foreign policy rests on "prevalência dos direitos humanos".

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

the phrase "direitos humanos" does not appear in the 76 pages of the TSE copy, and the program's own index has no section by that name. The rights language sits in the security chapter "Brasil sem Medo" (pp. 13-16): "Terrorista vai ser tratado como terrorista", "O crime do menor não é menor" (EN: a minor's crime is no minor matter, a pun that signals lowering the age of criminal responsibility), five new maximum-security prisons "no modelo adotado por El Salvador" (p. 14) and half a million new prison places in four years. P. 17: the plan "respeita todos os arranjos familiares e a liberdade de cada mulher decidir o próprio caminho".

Sources

FBSP Anuário 2026 ibsp.org.br
g1 on police deaths g1.globo.com
CNN Brasil on FBSP cnnbrasil.com.br
Human Rights Watch 2024 hrw.org
Human Rights Watch 2023 hrw.org
Poder360 on Yanomami deaths poder360.com.br
g1 on Yanomami 2024 g1.globo.com
Ministry of Indigenous Peoples gov.br

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Theme 7 of 12

Labor rights

472 votes

Chamber votes to end the 6x1 week (six days on, one off), 27 May 2026

The end of the 6x1 work week ("six days on, one off", moving to a 40-hour week) passed the Chamber of Deputies on 27 May 2026 with 472 votes in the first round. It is now in the Senate, with a first-round vote scheduled for 14 or 15 October (as of 10 Oct 2026). Lula's program backs it. Flávio's program never names it, and says it defends "o negociado sobre o legislado".

What the record shows

Bolsonaro government 2019-2022 versus Lula government 2023-2026.

Status as of 10 Oct 2026, to be updated: Chamber, first round 27 May 2026, 472 for and 22 against, with 11 PL deputies voting against. Senate: the Agência Brasil reports a first-round vote on Wednesday 14 Oct; Senado Notícias and Folha report 14 or 15 Oct. Flávio Bolsonaro, asked how he would vote, avoided answering and defended Minister Rogério Marinho's alternative proposal, which ties pay to hours worked (Valor, 1 Sep 2026; CNN Brasil, 2 Sep 2026).

	Bolsonaro 2019-22	Lula 2023-26
Unemployment, Dec rolling quarter, %	11.1 / 14.2 / 11.1 / 7.9	7.4 / 6.2 / 5.1 / 5.3 (Jun-Aug 2026)
Real usual monthly income, R$ (2025 prices)	3,204 / 3,310 / 3,101 / 3,032	3,249 / 3,368 / 3,560 / n/a
Real minimum wage, Dec, R$ (Dec 2025 prices)	1,389 / 1,391 / 1,331 / 1,386	1,443 / 1,472 / 1,518 (+9.5% since Dec 2022)

Caveats: 2020 includes the pandemic. Unemployment was already 7.9% in Dec 2022, when the term changed, so the fall from 14.2% is split between the two governments: 14.2% in 2020, 7.9% at the Dec 2022 handoff, 5.1% in Q4 2025. The minimum-wage deflation is our own calculation from BCB series; income in 2026 uses a different series and is omitted. The 6x1 vote was in the Chamber, not by Lula alone.

What each program says

Official government programs registered with the TSE for 2026. Quotes in the original Portuguese; page numbers are the programs' printed pages.

Lula (PT)

p. 75: "Manteremos nossa ação junto ao Senado Federal para assegurar o fim da escala 6x1 e a redução da jornada de trabalho para 40 horas, sem redução salarial, nos termos aprovados na Câmara dos Deputados." Also p. 75: new rules for platform workers; "retomando assistência sindical nas homologações". P. 76: strengthen collective bargaining.

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

p. 43: "Vamos reduzir gradualmente o custo do trabalho, sem retirar direitos". P. 44: "defendemos o negociado sobre o legislado" (EN: collective agreements overriding statute). P. 44: "O trabalhador em primeiro lugar, não o sindicato", against "unicidade sindical". P. 45, on app workers: they "serão protegidos, sem os interesses de dirigentes sindicais a frente do processo". The program does not name the 6x1 week or the 40-hour week. His position on the amendment itself, as reported by Valor and CNN Brasil, is above.

Sources

IBGE SIDRA apisidra.ibge.gov.br
IBGE income apisidra.ibge.gov.br
BCB minimum wage api.bcb.gov.br
Chamber camara.leg.br
g1 vote page g1.globo.com
Valor, 1 Sep 2026 valor.globo.com
CNN Brasil, 2 Sep 2026 cnnbrasil.com.br
Agência Brasil on the Senate vote agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br
Senado Notícias, 9 Oct 2026 www12.senado.leg.br

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Theme 5 of 12

LGBTQ+ rights

257 violent deaths in 2025

LGBT+ people, down 11.7% from 291 in 2024 (Grupo Gay da Bahia, NGO count)

Grupo Gay da Bahia, an NGO, counted 257 violent deaths of LGBT+ people in 2025, down 11.7% from 291 in 2024. Lula's program names LGBTQIAP+ people in several places. Flávio's program does not use the term LGBT; its nearest passage is about women's sport, on pp. 40-41.

What the record shows

Bolsonaro government 2019-2022 versus Lula government 2023-2026.

Grupo Gay da Bahia violent deaths (an NGO tally from press reports, not an official statistic): 2020: 237. 2021: 300. 2022: 256. 2023: 257. 2024: 291. 2025: 257 (204 homicides, 20 suicides, 17 latrocínios, 16 other causes), down 11.7%. The 2024 figure includes suicides. GGB's claim that Brazil leads the world is its own claim.
Jan 2019: Medida Provisória 870, which set up Bolsonaro's Ministry of Women, Family and Human Rights, did not name LGBT people in the ministry's remit (O Globo, 2019). Minister Damares Alves denied that LGBT policy was dropped, and Gazeta do Povo reported the ministry organogram kept a directorate for the area. Both versions are given.

What each program says

Official government programs registered with the TSE for 2026. Quotes in the original Portuguese; page numbers are the programs' printed pages.

Lula (PT)

p. 23: "levando em conta as dimensões de gênero, identidade, orientação sexual, étnico-raciais e classe social [...] de modo a garantir capacidade de o Estado atender, de forma adequada, justa e inclusiva, às pessoas LGBTQIAP+ e todas as suas especificidades". P. 29: priority for combating violence against "mulheres e pessoas LGBTQIAP+" online. P. 75: keep fighting "discriminações racial, étnica, LGBTQIAP+ e de classe no acesso ao trabalho decente". The program has no specific LGBTQIAP+ policy list.

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

the words LGBT, homofobia, orientação sexual and identidade de gênero do not appear in the 76 pages. The nearest passage is on pp. 40-41, on women's sport: "atletas que não nasceram do sexo feminino mantêm, mesmo após tratamento hormonal, vantagens de envergadura, densidade óssea e musculatura que a mulher não tem como equiparar" and "Vamos assegurar que a categoria feminina, da base ao alto rendimento, seja disputada por atletas do sexo feminino, protegendo a mulher e a lisura da competição de agendas ideológicas." EN: athletes who were not born female keep, even after hormone treatment, advantages in wingspan, bone density and muscle; the women's category will be reserved for athletes of the female sex. This is what the text says; it is not a statement about his views beyond it.

Sources

GGB 2025 grupogaydabahia.com.br
GGB 2024 grupogaydabahia.com.br
GGB 2023 grupogaydabahia.com.br
O Globo oglobo.globo.com
UOL noticias.uol.com.br
Gazeta do Povo gazetadopovo.com.br

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Theme 6 of 12

Racism

79.7%

Share of violent-death victims who were Black, 2025 (FBSP)

Almost 80% of people killed violently in Brazil in 2025 were Black (FBSP). In 2023 Lula created a Ministry of Racial Equality. Lula's program puts the fight against racism "no centro" of development; Flávio's program does not use the word "racismo" or "racial."

What the record shows

Bolsonaro government 2019-2022 versus Lula government 2023-2026.

Jan 2023: Ministério da Igualdade Racial created (gov.br, published 12 Jan 2023). The program says the quota policy was improved to include a reserve for quilombolas (p. 20; its own claim).
Quilombola land titles: the Lula program claims 65 titles and 72 expropriation decrees since 2023 (p. 20; its own count, not independently checked).
Fundação Palmares under Bolsonaro: O Globo reported specialists saying the government used the foundation to "desmobilizar" anti-racist struggle. That is the experts' judgment, so attribute it.
2025 (Lula era): Black people were 79.7% of violent-death victims, and the police-killing rate was 3.5 per 100,000 for Black people versus 1.0 for white people (FBSP Anuário 2026, via CNN Brasil). Not retrieved: matching Bolsonaro-era numbers for these two rates. The national police-deaths series, which does go back to 2016, is on the Human rights page.

What each program says

Official government programs registered with the TSE for 2026. Quotes in the original Portuguese; page numbers are the programs' printed pages.

Lula (PT)

p. 19: "Manteremos o combate ao racismo no centro de nossa estratégia de desenvolvimento, pois não é possível compreender nem superar as desigualdades brasileiras sem enfrentar a questão racial como dimensão estruturante da sociedade." P. 19: implement the V CONAPIR resolutions and regulate the Estatuto da Igualdade Racial. P. 60: speed up quilombola land titling, "promovendo a reparação histórica".

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

no use of "racismo" or "racial" in the text. It mentions quilombolas only on land use: p. 50, "Será conferida autonomia aos povos indígenas e quilombolas para decidir sobre atividades produtivas em suas terras, com respeito ao desenvolvimento sustentável e às regras ambientais, e com indenização de eventuais restrições ao usufruto". Same idea on p. 61.

Sources

Ministério da Igualdade Racial gov.br
O Globo on Fundação Palmares oglobo.globo.com
CNN Brasil on FBSP cnnbrasil.com.br

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Theme 2 of 12

Science and research funding

R$2.5bn blocked in June 2022

More than half the grant money then available in the FNDCT science fund (Folha)

In June 2022 the federal government blocked R$2.5 billion of the FNDCT, Brazil's main science fund. That was 56% of the grant money then available (Folha). Both 2026 programs promise priority for research. Neither gives a funding target.

What the record shows

Bolsonaro government 2019-2022 versus Lula government 2023-2026.

Like-for-like means the non-reimbursable part of the fund (grants), not the whole budget, because roughly half of the FNDCT is reimbursable loans through FINEP.

FNDCT, nominal R$	Bolsonaro 2019-22	Lula 2023-26
Total budget	2022: R$9,055.7 million	2024: R$12,724.7 million
Of which non-reimbursable (grants)	2022: R$4,527.8 million	2024: R$6,362.3 million
Non-reimbursable amount executed	not found	2024: R$6.36 billion, +28% on 2023 (FINEP annual report)
Blocks	June 2022: R$2.5 billion blocked, 56% of the R$4.5 billion then available (Folha)	none found

Background on the fund's rules. Complementary Law 177 (12 Jan 2021) bars freezing the FNDCT. Bolsonaro vetoed parts of it and Congress overrode the veto on 17 Mar 2021 (Senate 72-1, Chamber 475-18). Medida Provisória 1.136 (29 Aug 2022) then set how much of the fund could be used: R$5.555 billion in 2022, 58% of expected revenue in 2023, rising to 100% in 2027. The MCTI plan for 2022 says the 2022 budget was made fully available because the law bars freezing, while Folha reports the June 2022 block. Sources disagree on 2022, so this page uses both and does not claim more than either.

Not found: CNPq and CAPES scholarship budgets by year. These are budgeted amounts, not spending, unless stated.

What each program says

Official government programs registered with the TSE for 2026. Quotes in the original Portuguese; page numbers are the programs' printed pages.

Lula (PT)

p. 51: "Asseguraremos ainda a continuidade do uso estratégico do FNDCT, que sustentou o maior ciclo de investimentos de sua história e deixou de ter seus recursos contingenciados." EN: we will keep using the FNDCT strategically; it funded the biggest investment cycle in its history and its funds stopped being held back (contingenciados). That is the program's own claim. It is not a commitment that Flávio's program lacks. P. 51: the Conhecimento Brasil programme has approved 599 of 2,500 interested researchers. P. 9 criticises "cortes orçamentários arbitrários que comprometeram a pesquisa científica".

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

p. 56: "Daremos alta prioridade à pesquisa e ao desenvolvimento, que são a base da inovação." P. 36: "A CAPES e o CNPq passarão a priorizar o impacto produtivo, a inovação e a transferência de tecnologia". EN: CAPES and CNPq will prioritise productive impact, innovation and technology transfer. The program gives no funding numbers for research.

Sources

MCTI FNDCT 2022 plan gov.br
FINEP 2024 plan legacy.finep.gov.br
FINEP annual report 2024 premio.finep.gov.br
Folha, 27 Jun 2022 www1.folha.uol.com.br
MCTI on the veto override gov.br
Confies on the veto override confies.org.br
MP 1.136/2022 planalto.gov.br

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Theme 12 of 12

Public security

40,775 violent deaths in 2025

Rate of 19.1 per 100,000, the lowest since 2012 (FBSP Anuário 2026)

Violent intentional deaths in Brazil fell to 40,775 in 2025, a rate of 19.1 per 100,000, the lowest since 2012 (FBSP). Police killed 6,602 people that year, a series high. Both programs promise a hard line on organised crime. They differ on guns and on how.

What the record shows

Bolsonaro government 2019-2022 versus Lula government 2023-2026.

Violent intentional deaths (MVI), FBSP Anuário 2026, Tabela 02: 2018: 57,592. 2019: 47,765. 2020: 50,448. 2021: 48,286. 2022: 47,963. 2023: 46,441. 2024: 44,220. 2025: 40,775. The 2025 rate is 19.1 per 100,000 against 20.6 in 2024 (-8.2%). The large fall from 2018 to 2019 happened in the first year of the Bolsonaro government, and the fall since 2022 has continued under Lula.
Deaths caused by police: 6,602 in 2025, a series high since 2016, up 5.4% on 2024 and 55.7% over ten years. The full series is on the Human rights page.
Femicides reached a record 1,571 in 2025 (see the Women page).
Gun policy: the Lula government revoked decrees from the previous government that had eased access to firearms. The Lula program says this was "uma medida acertada" and that it will keep gun control (p. 28). Lula's program also says the previous government's deregulation of firearms strengthened militias and criminal factions (p. 9, its own claim).

What each program says

Official government programs registered with the TSE for 2026. Quotes in the original Portuguese; page numbers are the programs' printed pages.

Lula (PT)

pp. 26-28: public security is a "prioridade nacional" that needs federal coordination, intelligence and prevention. "O crime organizado deve ser enfrentado com firmeza, nos marcos da Constituição e do Estado Democrático de Direito, por meio da desarticulação de suas estruturas econômicas e financeiras." The program points to a constitutional amendment proposal on federal powers over security, the Lei Antifacção (2026), the SUSP, intelligence systems and gun control, plus urbanisation of favelas.

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

pp. 13-15: "Vamos declarar guerra ao crime organizado". Criminal factions "serão declaradas como organizações narcoterroristas" (EN: will be declared narco-terrorist organisations), the armed forces will occupy and monitor ports and airports, five maximum-security prisons "no modelo adotado por El Salvador" (p. 14), and federal security spending will double over the term (p. 15, "Menos verbo mais verba"). P. 14: chemical castration for convicted rapists and child abusers.

Sources

FBSP Anuário 2026 ibsp.org.br
Agência Brasil on 2025 violent deaths agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br
CNN Brasil on police killings cnnbrasil.com.br
g1 on the Anuário g1.globo.com

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Theme 9 of 12

Sovereignty and multipolarity

25% US tariff, July 2026

Section 301 tariff on certain Brazilian goods, announced 15 Jul 2026 (USTR)

Both programs use the word "sovereignty" and mean different things. Lula's builds on the BRICS, the Global South and the G20. Flávio's has a section titled "Soberania com profissionalismo, não com ideologia", trade with everyone including the US and China, and closer ties with Argentina, the US and Israel. On 15 Jul 2026 the US announced a 25% Section 301 tariff on certain Brazilian goods.

What the record shows

Bolsonaro government 2019-2022 versus Lula government 2023-2026.

Record. Last updated 10 Oct 2026. Timeline: - 9 Jul 2025: President Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports. His letter linked it to Brazil's treatment of Jair Bolsonaro and to what he called "attacks on Free Elections" and on the free speech rights of Americans (Reuters). The White House order of 30 Jul cited a "national security" emergency, with exceptions such as aircraft, orange juice and oil (g1). The same day the US sanctioned Justice Alexandre de Moraes under the Magnitsky Act (O Globo). - 20 Nov 2025: the US withdrew the extra 40% tariff on more than 200 Brazilian products such as coffee and beef, citing a conversation between Trump and Lula in October (g1). - 20 Feb 2026: the US Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, including the extra 40% on Brazil, 6-3 (AP, Reuters). - 1 Jul 2026: Flávio Bolsonaro filed a written comment with the US Trade Representative asking it to suspend the proposed tariff and open bilateral negotiations, and blaming the current government's conduct (Poder360 and Revista Fórum copies of the filing). - 15 Jul 2026: USTR announced a Section 301 action with a 25% tariff on certain Brazilian goods, citing digital trade and payments, preferential tariffs, anti-corruption, intellectual property, ethanol and illegal deforestation (USTR). - Lula's program says Brazil hosted COP30, the 17th BRICS summit and the G20, and that Mercosur concluded agreements with the EU, EFTA and Singapore (p. 79; its own claims).

What each program says

Official government programs registered with the TSE for 2026. Quotes in the original Portuguese; page numbers are the programs' printed pages.

Lula (PT)

p. 77: "o Brasil deve reafirmar sua soberania" amid "unilateralismo" and "protecionismo". P. 81: "Aprofundaremos a aproximação geopolítica com o BRICS e com o Sul Global, bem como com o G20", and reform of the IMF and World Bank ("democratização do FMI, do Banco Mundial"). P. 79: foreign policy based on "independência nacional [...] não-intervenção [...] defesa da paz".

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

p. 61: "Soberania com profissionalismo, não com ideologia" is a section heading. P. 61: "Soberania é a capacidade de uma nação governar a si própria, fazer suas leis e cuidar do seu território." P. 61-62: criticises Lula's reception of Maduro and the docking of Iranian warships. P. 62: "Negociaremos com todos os que interessam ao Brasil, da China à União Europeia, dos Estados Unidos aos mercados asiáticos"; relations with Argentina, the US and Israel "levadas ao limite do rompimento" will be reversed. The words BRICS and multipolar do not appear in his program.

Sources

Reuters, 9 Jul 2025 reuters.com
g1, 30 Jul 2025 g1.globo.com
O Globo oglobo.globo.com
g1, 20 Nov 2025 g1.globo.com
AP on the Supreme Court apnews.com
Reuters, 20 Feb 2026 reuters.com
USTR, 15 Jul 2026 ustr.gov
Flávio Bolsonaro's filing (Poder360 static.poder360.com.br
Translation (Revista Fórum revistaforum.com.br

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Theme 4 of 12

Women

1,571 femicides in 2025

A record, up from 1,330 in 2019 (FBSP Anuário 2026)

Femicides hit a record 1,571 in 2025 (FBSP), so no government has solved this. Both programs offer plans: Lula keeps the femicide pact and finishes the Casa da Mulher Brasileira network; Flávio offers ankle monitors, full sentences, and a "Brasil por Elas" programme built around digital inclusion and credit.

What the record shows

Bolsonaro government 2019-2022 versus Lula government 2023-2026.

Femicides (FBSP Anuário 2026, one release for the whole series)	Bolsonaro 2019-22	Lula 2023-26
Year 1	2019: 1,330	2023: 1,475
Year 2	2020: 1,354	2024: 1,504
Year 3	2021: 1,347	2025: 1,571 (record)
Year 4	2022: 1,455	2026: partial

Caveats: femicide became a crime in 2015, and FBSP says part of the rise is better classification. Sinesp (Ministry of Justice, a different source) shows 848 victims Jan-Jul 2026 versus 876 in 2025 (-3.2%). Budget: INESC found the Casa da Mulher Brasileira line was 12% executed under Bolsonaro (Estadão). In 2024 three new programmes of the Ministry of Women had 14.29% of their authorised budget paid (INESC). These measure different programmes, so do not compare them directly.

Laws signed (a list, not a score). Bolsonaro: 13.827/2019, 13.871/2019, 14.022/2020, 14.188/2021. Lula: 14.611/2023 (equal pay), 14.994/2024 (femicide as a separate crime).

What each program says

Official government programs registered with the TSE for 2026. Quotes in the original Portuguese; page numbers are the programs' printed pages.

Lula (PT)

p. 21: "ampliar as políticas de proteção às mulheres, combater o machismo, o sexismo e o feminicídio, promover a autonomia econômica, assegurar igualdade de oportunidades e garantir os direitos sexuais e reprodutivos". The Pacto de Enfrentamento ao Feminicídio "permanecerá como guia central"; the program says protective-order issuance time fell from 16 to 3 days (its own claim) and promises to finish "as 30 Casas da Mulher Brasileira e os 15 Centros de Referência". P. 21 also continues the Equal Pay Law.

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

p. 14: "Medida protetiva vai deixar de ser um pedaço de papel": aggressors of women with protective orders will wear ankle monitors, and femicide convicts will serve full sentences. P. 14: chemical castration for convicted rapists and child abusers. Pp. 17-22 "Brasil por Elas": Central da Mulher, app, internet bonus, "Casa Segura" shelters, "Creche garantida", women's training school. P. 20 claims that under Bolsonaro 90% of about 450,000 rural land titles went to women (program's own claim, not checked).

Sources

FBSP Anuário 2026, femicide chart ibsp.org.br
g1 on Anuário 2026 g1.globo.com
Ministry of Justice gov.br
INESC inesc.org.br
and inesc.org.br
Estadão estadao.com.br

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Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro. What each program says. What each government did.

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Climate and the Amazon

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Lula (PT)

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

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Democracy

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Lula (PT)

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

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Economy

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Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

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Energy transition

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Lula (PT)

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

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Human rights

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Labor rights

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LGBTQ+ rights

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Racism

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Lula (PT)

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Science and research funding

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Lula (PT)

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

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